You have probably seen the left touting a recent Monmouth University poll out of Iowa which headline reads: “Biden takes Likely Voter Lead; Greenfield Maintains Narrow Senate Edge.”
The left quickly tweeted this poll around using the statistic that Biden is polling ahead in Iowa by 5 points. The FPF team was immediately skeptical of this result considering Trump’s 10 point victory in Iowa in 2016.
It turns out that the poll actually did not have Biden winning in Iowa at all. And the only way they could make this narrative accurate is by weeding out voters they decided were “not likely” v “likely.” This is an odd practice for a poll because the list of voters they procured should have all already been considered “likely voters.” Why on earth would you poll a sample of individuals who are not likely to vote? And further – why on earth would someone not likely to vote agree to participate in a poll?
It turns out by “likely voter” they mean only individuals who are 65 or older. Meaning per this headline they do not consider any other age demographic to be a likely to vote. Its obviously that Biden polled well in only that demographic of voter so the University – arbitrarily and with no supporting data offered – decided that those individuals are the “likely voter” category. See below their “methodology.”
As stated above, President Trump actually won their poll in not only the primary category of “who do you plan to vote for” but almost every single other metric.
What’s worse is that Monmouth actually built in a question to determine likely voters and then totally ignored the results when they didn’t suit their Biden bias. When voters who responded in favor of President Trump were asked their certainty that they would show up and vote for President Trump come election time, 45% said they were 100% sure and 46% said they weren’t sure of their choice. On the same question for Biden – only 43% said they were sure with 49% saying they weren’t sure. By their own questioning, the Trump supporting voters are more “likely” voters than the Biden supporting voters.
Here are some other questions voters were asked in the poll which all favored Trump that Monmouth decided were irrelevant to election outcomes:
- How much does [the candidate] understand the day to day concerns of people like you?
- President Trump: 32% say a great deal
- Joe Biden: 28% say a great deal
- Who do you trust more on creating jobs and strengthening the economy
- President Trump: 49%
- Joe Biden: 37%
- Who do you trust more on maintaining law and order (an issue which 47% of the polled voters said was critically important to them)
- President Trump: 49%
- Joe Biden: 40%
We are all used to fake polls by now but this one seems to really take the cake. By their own metrics and questions, their headline that Joe Biden is winning with likely voters is untrue.